№ 6 (52)

The goal of the study is to create a method for estimating and predicting the state of objects with a non-trivial internal structure, multifunctional elements and complex relationships between them. An important feature of the goal is the independence of its solution from the area of operation of complex objects. The task of applying this approach in the field of information security is set.Research methods: system analysis, analytical modeling methods, statistical methods and machine learning methods, development of program code for the implementation of assessment and forecasting algorithms.Result: an ontological model of a generalized subject area is introduced that describes the main elements and their relationships. An analysis of the domestic scientific literature over the past few years and an analysis of the solutions existing in them are carried out, as well as their criteria-based comparison. The principles of constructing invariant methods of estimation and forecasting are developed. A scheme of a new method of estimation and forecasting is proposed. A description is given of generalized algorithms for the functioning of the assessment and prediction components, as well as their applicability for solving problems in the field of information security in the interests of countering network attacks. The scientific novelty lies in a rather extensive review of works over the past ten years (mainly over the past five years) devoted to the evaluation and prediction of objects with a complex internal structure. The systematization of works aims not only at analyzing and criteria-based comparison of research results, but also at synthesizing solutions “tied” to a specific area of application. As a result, a method of estimation and forecasting is proposed, which, unlike similar ones, can work without taking into account the specifics of the subject area, and its use for information security is considered.
Keywords: information technology, ontological model, articles survey, criteria comparison, construction principles, hypothetical scheme, generalized algorithms, network security.

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Purpose: Development of the adaptive protection system architecture for sensor networks and cyber-physical systems for anomaly detection based on the collection and analysis of cyber-physical parameters. Method: The method is based on the use of probability theory, mathematical statistics, and information theory. The entropy measure and normalization of the raw data make it possible to unify the data and evaluate it in terms of anomaly detection.Results: The existing solutions for the protection of cyber-physical systems from external active attacks were analyzed. The architecture of an adaptive system for a cyber-physical system protection is proposed. As part of the representation of the node data collection and analysis subsystem, a method for estimating cyber-physical parameters to detect intrusions is proposed. Three parameter changes for four behavioral scenarios were analyzed in detail in this study. Even by three parameters, you can determine the difference between attacks and normal behaviors. It is possible to evaluate not only the fact of parameter change, but also the degree of its change. At the same time, the node autonomously compared changes in its parameters with changes in the parameters of the neighboring node and could identify the impact of the attack on the neighboring node.The scientific novelty primarily consists in the fact that for the first time a method for determining the abnormal activity of a cyber-physical system based on the evaluation of system parameters using a measure of entropy and normalization of raw data has been developed, which makes it possible to achieve a high level of detection of known and unknown attacks. This method can be effectively used also for autonomous systems. The original architecture of the adaptive system for protecting the cyber-physical system is also proposed, its main components are worked out. When implementing an attack in a distributed system, this development will allow the node to detect anomalies not only autonomously, but also distributed, that is, to detect the impact on neighboring nodes.
Keywords: data analysis, anomaly, statistics, attacks, risks, cyberphysical systems.

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Purpose of work is to analyze the existing practices of performing security analysis and IT-security audit (NIST, OWASP, Cobit, OSSTMM, PTES and GOST R ISO/IEC), used to obtain objective and reliable data for operational security assessments of the CII objects and development of an IT-security audit model for CII objects.Research method: methods of analysis and structural decomposition from the theory of system analysis, identifying signs essential for optimizing the process of IT-security audit for CII objects.Research result: include the detailed analysis and comparison of the existing best practices for performing security analysis and IT-security audit (NIST, OWASP, Cobit, OSSTMM, PTES and GOST R ISO/IEC) for CII objects. A model of IT-security audit for CII objects has been developed.Scientific novelty: an IT-security audit model for CII facilities, characterized by the possibility of a “dual” mode for a full cycle of ensuring the safety of CII facilities - a full national conditional mode and a combined conditional mode, which allows, if necessary, to include additional functional blocks.
Keywords: threats, vulnerabilities, standard, risk, audit, controls, information security, NIST, OWASP, Cobit,
OSSTMM, PTES, ISSAF. 

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Purpose of work is to create a new algorithm for predicting anomalous states of computer systems (CS) using the mathematical apparatus of multivalued dependencies (Multivalued Dependencies Prognosus Algorithm, MDPA), which are categorical concepts.The research method is the analysis of historical data using the mathematical apparatus of multivalued dependencies.Objects of study are theoretical and practical issues of solving and visualizing information security problems.Results of the study. A methodology and algorithm for predicting the state of CS have been developed. The boundaries of the input parameters of the algorithm are derived and justified. The boundaries of the input parameters need to be pre-configured for the correct generation of the prognosis.A software implementation of the proposed prediction algorithm has been developed. The efficiency of the algorithm has been tested on real experimental data. A spatial analysis of the prediction results was carried out.The main disadvantage of the proposed algorithm is the need to fine-tune the input parameters for each set of “historical data”.Scientific significance. The scope of application of multivalued dependencies has been expanded; a new algorithm for predicting anomalous states of CS, which are categorical concepts, has been proposed. The developed prediction algorithm can be generalized to any subject area containing historical data of any type.
Keywords: historical data, time series analysis, forecasting model, time series forecasting, computer system, 
anomaly forecast, system state.

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Purpose: rational and description of the methodological apparatus of system engineering in terms of risk prediction, taking into account the requirements for information protection.Research methods include: methods of probability theory, risk-oriented models for predictive analysis of standardized processes of system engineering.Result: interrelated models and methods systematized for use in the planning and implementation of standardized processes of system engineering are described. Their use makes it possible to analyze the impact of information security in terms of predicted risks. Methods and models are implemented in a set of system engineering standards and analytically support the effective implementation of agreement, organizational project-enabling, technical management and technical processes according to GOST R 57193 (ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288) in relation to systems for various purposes (a total of 30 processes). The proposed models and methods of system analysis of information security in standardized processes of system engineering develop established approaches to risk prediction, ensuring and improving system security. The use of the proposed models and methods in the life cycle of systems helps to identify «bottlenecks», rational ways to reduce risks in the implemented standardized processes, taking into account the requirements for information protection, supports the making decisions in analytical problems of system engineering.Scientific novelty: the proposed methodological apparatus develops the existing approaches to risk prediction, ensuring and improving systems security. The ideas are implemented in the national standards GOST R 59329 - GOST R 59357. They allow enterprises to move to the pragmatic implementation of a risk-based approach using the analytical capabilities of solving inverse problems of effective security control, based on the specified level of acceptable risk.
Keywords:  risk-based approach, probabilistic models, information security, risk prediction, systems engineering
standards, systems analysis.

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Keywords: Neural networks, association rules, phone fraud, manipulation, phishing, extortion.

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The purpose of the article: the development of a method for recognizing cyber threats in adaptive network topologies of large-scale systems based on a recurrent neural network with a long short-term memory.Main research methods: system analysis of existing recognition methods, theoretical formalization, experiment.
Result: The approach showed a satisfactory efficiency of cyber threat recognition, and the results of the research made it possible to put forward proposals for the further development of this area. Scientific novelty: A model of adaptive network topology is formulated and a new way of recognizing cyber threats on the adaptive network topology of large-scale systems is proposed.
Keywords: Cyber security, cyber threat detection, recurrent neural networks, anomaly detection, adaptive network topology.

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Purpose: To identify the current possibilities of the use of artificial earth satellites for military purposes, as well as the problems of illegal destructive use of satellites during hostilities based on analysis and systematization according to various parameters of functions of satellites as part of the modern global information space and to develop proposals that can reduce the likelihood of escalation of the conflict during the crisis.Research method: analysis of open sources on the purposeful use of modern AES, synthesis and scientific forecasting, expert assessment, factological analysis of the AES within the framework of a systematic approach.Result: the article presents an analysis and systematization significant dynamic changes at the cosmic level of the global information space associated with the large-scale spread and significant increase in the number of artificial earth satellites, as well as with the growing importance of satellites for military purposes. The article presents the classification of satellites performing military functions, reveals the possibilities of modern satellites in the period of crisis and military operations and the analysis of the US satellite constellation as a leader in this field. The author poses the problems of the illegal destructive use of artificial earth satellites during military conflicts, associated with this increase in the risk of cyber threats and an increase in the likelihood of escalation of the conflict, threats to Russia, international security and strategic stability. The article proves the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the satellite constellation are today one of the most important indicators of the influence and potential of the state in the world.Scientific novelty: Proposals have been developed to minimize threats to Russia, as well as to reduce the likelihood of an escalation of the conflict during the crisis.
Keywords: artificial earth satellite (AES), military satellite, reconnaissance satellite, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System (BMEWS), cyber weapon, informational threat, cyber threat, strategic stability, critical national infrastructure (CI). 

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